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EURUSD NOTES by Ardy Ismail

Overview (19/6 @ 12.00pm)

Risks Still Skewed to the Downside. Low for buying opportunities as it presents itself.

Downside support seen at around the 1.120 level. Daily momentum has turned bearish. Risks remain skewed to the downside for now.

Downside support at 1.1120 levels (38.2% fibo retracement from Mar low to Jun high, 21 DMA).

Resistance at 1.1240 (23.6% fibo)

Fundamentals

1. EU solidarity; coordinated use of fiscal and monetary responses could buffer against a deeper downturn and secure a firmer recovery.

GBPUSD NOTES by Ardy Ismail

Overview (19/6 @ 12.00pm)

Downside bias for GBPUSD as it remains under pressure this week.

Last seen at 1.2433 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart is waning while RSI is falling. Near term risks skewed to
the downside.

Support at 1.2430 (50 DMA) and 1.2340 levels. Immediate resistance at 1.2530 (100 DMA), 1.2690 levels (200 DMA), 1.2810 (last high).

Fundamentals

1. Uncertainty in getting a deal could disappoint markets and weigh on GBP. Also focus is on UK’s progress on inking trade deals with other nations, other than EU.

AUDUSD NOTES by Luthfi

Overview (16/06 @ 3.00am)

1. audusd hit resistance line at 0.6920 mark from a bullish retracement.
audusd created a lower low at H4 before it retraced up to reach the 0.6920 mark.
With bearish momentum still present, it should retrace down to 0.6800 horizontal support level and might break below that line.

Fundamentals

1. On Thursday, the May Australian jobs report will show that the economy has been handling the coronavirus pandemic better than some of its developed country counterparts. The Australian unemployment rate is set to rise to 7% from 6.2% on the back of another 125,000 jobs lost (from 594,300 lost in April); but comparatively, say, to Canada or the United States, both of which are reeling from double digit unemployment, the situation down under isn’t that bad at all

2. The Australian Dollar’s terrific run of late may be facing its first real test in weeks. Failure to extend its rally amid a sharp recalibration of risk appetite has led the antipodean currency to just its third weekly loss since bottoming during the third week of March. Losses in AUD/JPY (-3.44%) and AUD/USD (-1.45%) rates were meaningful, and even pairs like EUR/AUD (+1.15%) and GBP/AUD (+0.45%), considerable losers in recent weeks, were able to post gains.

NZDUSD NOTES by Luthfi

Overview (14/6@ 11.38pm)

NZDUSD pair reversed at a support turned resistance line at support level from Jan 2019, April 2019 and July 2019. MACD has shown that a bullish momentum has weakened and a bearish
outlook is taking over. If bearish candles are taking over next week it will test on a slanted resistance line at 0.6325 and rise up to retest the resistance level again at 0.6570. If it breaks below the resistance line at 0.6325, it might reach a horizontal resistance line at 0.6230.

Fundamentals

1. Interest rates in RBNZ will remain at 0.25% for at least the next 12months. RBNZ noted that 0.25% “was currently the lower limit, given the operational readiness of the financial system for very low or negative interest rates.”

2. In the last RBNZ meeting in May, “The committee noted that a negative official cash rate will become an option in the future, although at present financial institutions are not yet operationally ready,” the RBNZ said.“It was noted that discussions with financial institutions about preparing for a negative OCR are ongoing,” which “will become an option” in 2021.

USDJPY NOTES by Alauddin

Overview (16/6 @ 9.00 pm)

Pair has been mostly bearish in the past week. Trading closed on a bull candle. Monitor price action in the coming few days to observe market direction. Current horizontal support is at 106.90.  Currently near dynamic resistance of EMA30.Candles closing above or below this EMA30 could be a possible direction indicator.

USDJPY  can go either way in the coming week.  Possible to go 100+ pip movement long/short.

Fundamentals

1)  Asian shares rallied and dollars fell as risk appetite bolstered by the Federal Reserve Corporate Bond buying programme and worries of a second wave of Cov19 eased.

2)BoJ kept monetary setting steady and stucked to its view that economy will gradually recover from the pandemic. It has also increase its support to cash-strapped firms.

USDCAD NOTES by Alauddin

Overview (16/6 @ 9.00 pm)

 Pair has closed bearishly on Friday after a surge. Candle closed suggests an indecisiveness between the Bulls and the Bears.

A possible retracement before going long again. SqMom is losing its momentum.

Fundamentals

  1. Purchase of Corporate Bonds by Feds and BoC continuing to rule out a negative interest rate policy ,as their belief of Bank’s programme in improving market function are having its intended effect, will have an impact on USDCAD price movement

EURJPY NOTES by Awadh

Overview (22/6 @ 11.00am)

The currency pair has penetrated the two EMAs to the downside and it is trading below the 9 periods EMA and 21 periods which indicate that the bears’ are fully in control of the EURJPY market. The price may pullback to retest the broken level of 120 before it continues its bearish momentum which may reach the demand levels of 118, 117, and 116. The significant supply levels to watch at are; 120, 121 and 122. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is above 40 levels with the signal lines pointing down which indicates a sell signal.

Fundamentals

1. The Euro had been a prime beneficiary of optimistic speculation surrounding the global economy ‘restarting.’ Resurgent fears of a new coronavirus wave have kneecapped the Euro.

2. EUR/JPY is reporting over a 2% drop on a week-to-date basis and looks set to end the week on a negative note, having printed gains in the preceding four weeks. 

GBPJPY NOTES by Awadh

Overview (22/6 @ 11.25am)

A break of the three-month-old support line, now resistance, drags the quote towards May 22 low of 130.68. However, 130.00 might question the pair’s further weakness. On the upside, the support-turned-resistance line, at 132.33 now, followed by a 50-day SMA level of 133.45, could challenge the buyers during the pair’s pullback moves.

Fundamentals

1. The fears of the virus wave 2.0 and the US-China tussle offer extra downside pressure on the pair.

2. While portraying the risk-tone sentiment, US 10-year Treasury yields remain sluggish near 0.70% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 0.30% to 22,415 at the current time. Furthermore, the US stocks seem to recovery the early-day losses while taking US President Donald Trump’s refrain from levying sanctions on Chinese diplomats involved in the Xinjiang case as the major risk-positive event.

EURGBP NOTES by Ilyas EFX

Overview (30/5 @ 9.06pm)

Price currently trading sideways and swinging with a support level of 0.887 and resistance level of 0.900. Price had recently reacted to the support level.

Bullish price action to be expected in the remaining days of the week. However lower lows and lower highs can be observed. Recommended short position at 0.898 level.

Fundamentals

1. German & EU recovery stimulus programs are interpreted as EU solidarity & coordinated policy responses to do all thats necessary to get markets functioning and economy started on a firmer footing- Read more

2. PM BoJo’s plans to lift lockdown restrictions as UK deaths decline – Read more

AUDNZD NOTES by Ilyas EFX

Overview (30/5 @ 9.06pm)

Price has broken through the support level at the 1.066 level. Double bottom pattern can be observed. Price has been bearish for the past few trading days and bearish momentum seems to be strong.

Next downside support at around the 1.0600 level. If price manages to break through, we may see the price go down to test that support level.

Fundamentals

1. NZD emerges out of Covid and acts as a supporting factor. Read more

2. Cautious on Sino-US tensions flaring up at Trump’s press conference Read more

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