A look at the NZD/USD on the daily chart

nzd/usd technical analysis

nzd/usd trade analysis

The chart above tells us that the up trend is still intact. The above is a daily time frame of the NZD/USD. The stochastic is pointing up and there is still some room for the stochastic to go before it is in the overbought region.

The MACD have not crossed to the upside yet but we can see that the MACD bars are getting shorter although they are still in the red.

The 61.8% Fibo resistance is preventing the price from going up and it is in confluence with the 20EMA. Hence we should see the price drop from there even if there is intention of price going up.

Hence, I would not take any trade in this pair as the signals are mixed.

All the best to your trading.

Ardy

Forex Trader/Forex Blog/Singapore Forex Traders

USD/JPY looks so Friggin Bullish with these 2 shadows from the Bottom

usd/jpy

I look at this chart and it is telling me something. It is telling me that the USD?JPY is going to go up!

I have made an analysis using the USD/JPY monthly chart and I see a potential for the pair to continue rising. On the daily chart, it seems that 82.0 can be reached and breached.

I hope I am right as I am long this pair right now.

May your trades be profitable!

Ardy

Forex Trader/Forex Blog

USD/JPY horizontal movement on 7th March 2012, 7.37pm Singapore time.

USD/JPY Forex Analysis by a Forex Trader on a Forex Blog

The chart above shows us that after a 5 wave decline, the usd/jpy is going horizontal. The market is contemplating what it should do next with risk aversion in the air right now.

I am monitoring this pair and am thinking of buying this forex pair as in the long term usd/jpy chart, the pair looks bullish.

Its interesting to learn how the pair behaves as both the USD and the JPY are favorites when there is risk aversion in the forex markets and they are often known as the safety currencies.

I will update the blog when I see something interesting.

Good luck in trading the forex market!

Ardy

Forex Trader/Forex Blog

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis on 7th March 2012

The euro dollar has ssen some bearishness since the beginning of the week. With the Greek crisis hitting the news again, risk aversion has entered the market again.

From the euro dollar daily chart above, it seems that euro dollar is about to continue on its down trend. It has broken the bottom channel and straggling at the price 1.314.

Further bearish momentum is affected and the price hitting 1.30 should not be discounted.

Above the EMA20, we might look at the pair going up but at the moment, there are no signs of the price going up anytime soon.

All the best to your trading

Ardy

Forex Trader/Forex Blog

USD/JPY breakout on the monthly chart signals a possible retracement from 81.4 to 87.0 in a few months.

The above chart shows us that pair has succeeded in breaking through its downtrend line on the monthly chart. It may signal further upside to the 87 region which happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

If you are thinking of taking a longer term trade with a good profit loss ratio, I think this could be the one. If the stop loss is put at 79 and profit target at 1.564, that’s a loss of about 200 pips and gain of 500 pips. A profit to loss ratio of 2.5:1.

I think the ratio is not bad.

Anyway, all the best to your trading.

Ardy

Forex Blog

 

5 Secrets of a Successful Forex Trader

I have pondered. I have questioned. I have lived through the experience. I think I am ready now to reveal to you the 5 secrets that can make you a successful forex trader. Here goes and be forewarned that by following these 5 tips, you are setting yourself to become a successful forex trader that only 5% of those who tried ever made it through without exploding their bank vault. So, if you ever dream of becoming that 5% who takes from the rest of the 95%, it will be good for you to now sit back and reflect on the things that I am going to explain next.

SECRET NO. 1

Possess a Method to Trade

SECRET NO. 2

Develop the Discipline to Follow your Method

SECRET NO. 3

Acquire Real Trading Experience with Real Money

SECRET NO.4

Develop the Mental Strength that Losses is part of the Game.

SECRET NO. 5

Develop the Mental Strength to Hold on to Trades and Accept HUGE Gains.

Yes my friend, the above 5 secrets are now told to you. You need right now to really understand what the 5 secrets above  mean.

If you need to dissect each phrase and cut it up and write it on paper before burning the paper and swallowing it, do it!

If you need to go to the Austrian Alps and shout the 5 secrets that makes a successful forex trader over and over again so that you do not forget them, do it!

If you need to write the 5 secrets that makes a successful forex trader a thousand times over, do it!

It will be for your own good and it will help you become the trader that you really want to be. I am going to write  book based on the 5 forex secrets  laid out above and I am going to give it away free. Yes, free of charge, You heard that right. Before I launch the book, do take the time and really try to understand the 5 secrets on your own.

To your trading success!

Ardy

Singapore Forex Trader / Singapore Forex Blog

 

The Danger of Over Trading

Most traders know that over trading is a dangerous thing. It is something that most people would want to avoid but just can’t come to resist.

The question is “Why do traders over trade and when do they have a much higher propensity to over trade?”

I believe one of the things why traders over trade is because of the inability to control emotions after winning a trade and seeing the trade rise some more. This usually gives the trader a feeling that, hey, I could have made more if I had stayed in the trade then if I had taken profits. Seeing the extra pips that could have been made after taking the profits gives the trader a feeling that propels him to take revenge by taking another trade in order not to “lose out”.

Another possible reason why traders over trade is actually due to a human tendency to always want more. Human beings by nature would see more benefits with having more than having less. Just look at yourself and the people around you. They strive to have a bigger house or a second house, a bigger car, a more luxurious one, a bigger yacht, more hand bags for the ladies?

The list goes on. Human wants can never be satisfied.

As such, this trait follows us in trading. When we trade and we make money from that first trade and we make more money from the second and the third trade, all happening within a one hour time frame, we just feel that we can do this and make more and more money from the markets not realizing that the 3 trades we made was from a rising market and that the market is due for a correction soon. As we allow ourselves to be consumed by wanting more, we inevitably get ourselves in a condition which causes us to over trade.  When the equation sees emotions being greater than rules and analysis, we will have a tendency to take a trade that might just result in a big loss.

The situation is made worst for beginner traders. New traders have to watch out for the 3 main dangers in trading. First, of over trading, second of ensuring proper trade sizes and 3rd of maintaining a proper stop loss strategy.

So what is the solution to this problem?

The answer is being disciplined. You must remind yourself to be disciplined when you have a winning streak. This will cause you to be over confident and take trades without using the right methodology and following your rules.

Always check yourself before you click to enter a trade. Ask yourself whether are you trading because a certain signal is given or i is because you have grown over confident and think that you have gamed the market. Over confidence is never good if you are trader. It may just get you to a position of no confidence if you are not careful as a forex trader.

The temptation is always high as a trader because as humans, we are easily tempted by money and the possibility of making more money.

If you really want to succeed as a trader, you need get yourself emotionally disengaged from money. You cannot look at the screen and after seeing that you have to take a loss based on your rules, decide to wait a little longer because you cannot get yourself to take the loss. You tell yourself, “Hey, that is a loss of $1000. I can buy myself so many things with that money. I think I can hold on a little bit longer and the trade might get better.”

Please understand that the market does not know you and it will move where it wants to move. If you have too strong an emotional connection to money that you trade, then I am sorry to say that you are just not ready to trade that money that you have. Its better if you just spend that money than trade  as an unwillingness to take a loss after over trading means that your whole account can be wiped out.

I hope that there are learning points in this article for you.

I have gone through trying times myself as a trader and I belief that trading successfully requires determination, patience, and experience that only time can give.

I wish all the best in your trading.

I invite you to join me in my Facebook group at Singapore Forex Traders.

Till then,

Ardy

Singapore Forex Trader / Singapore Forex Blog

 

Euro breakout and heading higher to 1.345 level.

The chart above show the euro dollar trending up. The pair went lower early this week and has since went above its last high of around a.332. Above here the pair can be seen targetting the resistance level 1.345. I will be watching this pair closely as it goes higher and I would be looking into buying the pair on dips.

I hope to share more analysis as it comes on this forex trading blog.

Good luck to your trading.

Join me in the Facebook group, Singapore Forex Traders for more updates and sharing on forex trading.

Ardy

Singapore Forex Trader

A MACD divergence on the Euro Dollar One Hour chart signalled an eventual 300 over pips correction

Macd divergence on the euro dollar chart

macd divergence

 

The chart above shows us a recent euro dollar move that saw a correction of more than 300 pips. There was divergence on the MACD on the 1 hour chart. The channel saw the price moving up whilst the MACD was pointing down. This divergence signaled to us traders that there could be an impending break of thee channel to the downside.

As the above chart shows, the price did break the channel and the price went spiraling down in 3 waves.  I believe that this current move down is a correction before price heads higher to around 1.345 to 1.35 level if we look at the daily chart below. We see a downtrend channel on the daily chart and that yesterdays close was well above the 20 and 50 EMA signalling that the market might use the EMAs as support to go even higher.

Euro dollar analysis on Forex Blog

Euro dollar analysis on Forex Blog

The chart above tells us that the euro dollar is still in its down trend and things have not changed yet unless we see the pair going above the 1.36 level and staying above that level. At this moment, we might be seeing a wave 5, impulsive wave that might bring us to the 1.34 and 1.35 level mark.

Take note however that the EMA 150 and EMA 100 could offer some strong resistance to the pair as it makes it corrective climb.

To your trading success!

Ardy

Join me and my group at Singapore Forex Traders. This is where I share my thoughts and my trade entries with other traders as we journey together in the markets.

 

 

Euro Dollar seen targeting 1.35 if the 20 and 50 ema holds on the Daily Chart

 

Looking at the daily chart above. A further up move is possible if the support holds. Failure of that support sees euro dollar heading to 1.30  level. With the bad news from Europe out and priced into the market already, we might see a resumption of the euro dollar rally.

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